Politics
By Caitlin Yilek, Allison Novelo
/ CBS News
Washington — Unlike the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. faced a costly and time-consuming process to appear on general election ballots as an independent candidate before he suspended his campaign.
Rulesvary from state to state, but independent candidates typically have to collect thousands of signatures or be supported by a minor party in order to apply for ballot access.
Kennedy opted to run as an independent last October, abandoning his Democratic primary bid. Democrats and Republicans questioned whether the independent candidate would pull support from their voters.
Seeing no path to victory, Kennedy endorsed former President Donald Trump in a speech in Phoenix on Aug. 23. But he said his name would remain on the ballot in non-battleground states and encouraged voters there to still vote for him.
In battleground states, "where my presence would be a spoiler, I'm going to remove my name, and I've already started that process and urge voters not to vote for me," he said. He added that campaign's polling consistently showed that he would "likely hand the election over to the Democrats" if he was on the ballot in battleground states.
"He's a well-known name," said Dan Mallinson, an associate professor at Pennsylvania State University at Harrisburg. "He's different than a lot of other third-party candidates that run."
Kennedy is currently on the ballot in three tightly contested states — Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. RecentCBS News estimatesshow Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump are statistically tied in Michigan and North Carolina, with Kennedy attracting 2% support in Michigan and 1% in North Carolina.
Michigan said it's too late for Kennedy to pull his name from the November ballot. Wisconsin rejected Kennedy's request to withdraw — state law requires that candidates remain on the ballot unless they die. North Carolina also rejected his request, saying millions of ballots have already been printed.
"Some of these states are such tight margins that it can matter," Mallinson said before Kennedy made his announcement.
Michigan has nearly 8.4 million registered voters. If Kennedy actually took 2% of the vote, that would be about 167,820 votes. Trump narrowly beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by less than 1 point, or about 10,700 votes, in 2016. President Biden won the state in 2020 by more than 150,000 votes, finishing less than 3 points ahead of Trump.
Democrats saw a bump after swapping their nominee from Mr. Biden to Harris, largely coming from voters who had previously expressed support for Kennedy, according to aPew Research Center poll.
Polling from Marquette Law School found that when independent candidates were included on the ballot question, Trump had a slightly larger drop in support than Harris. In an Emerson College poll, Harris' and Trump's support evenly decreased by two points with third-party candidates on the ballot. Kennedy's support has dropped in recent months in both polls.
It's typical of third-party candidates to see their poll numbers drop as it gets closer to Election Day, according to Matthew Foster, a professor at American University.
"When you're polling months beforehand, people's choices are a bit mushy," he said. "They're more willing to support a third-party candidate at that moment. But when the election comes down to the wire and it really becomes time for the decision, they tend to go either Republican or Democrat."
Kennedy's campaign said it secured enough signatures in every state and Washington, D.C., except for Mississippi.
In the map below, states where Kennedy's campaign says it has met the threshold to appear on the ballot but are still awaiting official confirmation are light blue.
So far, about half of states — those that are dark blue on the map — have confirmed that he will appear on the November ballot.
Kennedy was officially on the ballot in Arizona and Nevada, both battleground states, Maine, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas, but withdrew his candidacy. He also pulled his name from the ballot in Florida and Pennsylvania after his campaign said he met the states' thresholds.
He failed to qualify in New York and Georgia. In New York, a judge said Kennedy falsely claimed a New York residence on his nominating petitions. A state appellate court upheld the ruling after Kennedy appealed. A Georgia judge recently determined Kennedy was "not qualified" to appear on the ballot in the state, also citing questions about his New York residency. A spokesperson for Georgia's secretary of state confirmed he would not appear on the ballot.
Even if he ends up on a majority of ballots, "he won't make any impact if it's not the battlegrounds," Foster said.
- Alaska
- California
- Colorado
- Delaware
- Hawaii
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Tennessee
- Utah
- Vermont
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
Where RFK Jr.'s ballot status is awaiting official confirmation:
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Connecticut
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Kansas
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Missouri
- Montana
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- North Dakota
- Rhode Island
- South Dakota
- Virginia
- Washington, D.C.
- Wyoming
States where he will not be on the ballot:
- Arizona
- Florida
- Georgia
- Maine
- Nevada
- New York
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- South Carolina
- Texas
- In:
- Politics
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- 2024 Elections
Caitlin Yilek
Caitlin Yilek is a politics reporter at CBSNews.com, based in Washington, D.C. She previously worked for the Washington Examiner and The Hill, and was a member of the 2022 Paul Miller Washington Reporting Fellowship with the National Press Foundation.