The Big 12 Media Preseason Poll was released Tuesday, and while my first ballot as a voter was close to the final result, there are a few differences worth discussing.
Below is my complete ballot and the reasoning behind the placements:
1. Kansas State ( 1)
I was one of 19 voters to have No. 2 Kansas State as my top-ranked team. This was because K-State, in my opinion, has the easiest path to the Big 12 Championship Game.
All of the Wildcats’ hardest games are at home: vs. Arizona, vs. Oklahoma State and vs. Kansas. They also play all of what I predict will be the worst three teams in the conference: at BYU, at Houston and vs. Arizona State.
Furthermore, quarterback Avery Johnson is an upgrade over Will Howard.
I may not pick K-State to win the championship game outright – depending on its opponent – but no other team is more likely to play in it, and therefore win it all. It would be their second title in three years.
2. Utah ( 1)
Utah is undeniably the best Big 12 team on paper, which most of my colleagues agree with. But the preseason media poll is not supposed to predict the best team in a vacuum, rather the team most likely to finish first in the standings.
With that said, Utah has a slightly tougher schedule than K-State. The Utes play against Oklahoma State at Boone Pickens Stadium on Sept. 21 – a game I expect the Cowboys to win as of July.
That outcome alone would be enough to put Utah behind an undefeated K-State in the standings and potentially cause them to lose out on a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game because of a tiebreaker.
Plus, the Utes were an entirely different team without quarterback Cam Rising in 2023, who missed the entire season from a knee injury. There’s no knowing how he’ll look until the games are played.
3. Kansas ( 1)
Similar to Utah, I expect Kansas’ season to depend entirely on the health of its quarterback.
Jalon Daniels played in just three games during the 2023 season but looked great in all three. Daniels has been among the most injury-prone players in the country throughout his career.
If he stays upright, the Jayhawks can be among the best Big 12 teams in 2024. They play K-State on the road on Oct. 26, but other than that, their entire remaining schedule consists of teams outside the consensus top five.
Kansas after its best season in more than 15 years is bringing back Devin Neal, a top three running back in the conference, and two of the best defensive backs; Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.
Don’t be surprised to see the Jayhawks in Arlington come December.
4. Oklahoma State ( 1)
Oddly enough, the team I cover is the one I struggled with placing the most because I think Oklahoma State has the widest range of outcomes.
The Cowboys, I believe, can finish as low as seventh. But at the same time, I could easily see them winning their first Big 12 Championship Game.
The team is returning most of its roster from its runner-up 2023 season. Ollie Gordon, off-field troubles aside, is the best player in the conference and one of the best in the country.
So what’s not to like?
For starters, OSU opens Big 12 play against the consensus top two teams. A rough start could spell trouble for the rest of the season.
However, I expect OSU to win some games it should lose. At the same time, anyone who has watched the team over the years knows it absolutely will lose a game it should win.
With that in mind, fourth place felt right.
5. Arizona (-)
Arizona was another tricky team to rank, but I ultimately think we in the media have this one right.
The Wildcats are carrying a lot of momentum from an excellent 2023 season as the 11th-ranked team in the nation, capped off by a dominant win over Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl.
By season’s end, Arizona could have the best offense in the Big 12 with the best quarterback (Noah Fifita), wide receiver (Tetairoa McMillan) and offensive lineman (Jonah Savaiinaea).
But it also could have lost some momentum along with former coach Jedd Fisch, who replaced Kalen DeBoer at Washington.
6. Iowa State (-)
Iowa State was the other team I think was ranked perfectly.
I won’t be surprised if they shatter expectations this season. Quarterback Rocco Becht impressed me in 2023.
He has two great weapons in wide receiver Jayden Higgins and fullback/tight end Stevo Klotz, and Matt Campbell has proven himself to be a good to very good offensive coach.
7. TCU ( 3)
TCU is probably being underrated because of an expected step back in 2023 following a national runner-up finish in 2022.
Coach Sonny Dykes reloaded in the transfer portal this offseason, and while I don’t expect them to be contending for any championships, the Horned Frogs should move in the right direction and set themselves up for an optimistic 2025.
8. Texas Tech ( 1)
Nothing jumps off the page when looking at Texas Tech’s roster except for Tahj Brooks – who is the second best running back in the Big 12.
He alone should make them a competitive football team, and a relatively light schedule finds them in the No. 8-9 range in the preseason poll. The Red Raiders’ toughest games are at Arizona and at Oklahoma State, but they otherwise play some of the worst teams in the league.
9. Colorado ( 2)
Colorado is somehow the most overrated and most underrated team in the country.
EA College Football 25 has the Buffs as the No. 8 offense, No. 20 defense and No. 16 team in the country overall. All of that is at least a touch too high.
However, the media ranking them outside the top 10 in the Big 12 is at least a touch too low. Shedeur Sanders is the best quarterback in the conference, and Travis Hunter is the Preseason Defensive Player of the Year.
Colorado and coach Deion Sanders should win six or seven games in 2024.
10. Cincinnati ( 4)
According to the preseason poll, I think Cincinnati is the most underrated team in the Big 12.
Let me be clear: I don’t think the Bearcats are a good team. In fact, I know they’re bad.
But their schedule is criminally easy. They play K-State on the road on Nov. 23. Their other eight conference opponents are outside the top five consensus, and four of them are in my bottom five.
11. UCF ( 3)
Gus Malzahn’s Golden Knights were a fun team in 2023, but lost many key contributors as a result.
UCF added more than 40 players in the offseason and will need to work hard to find cohesion in the depth chart.
Its offense should find success early with quarterback K.J. Jefferson and wide receiver Kobe Hudson, but its defense is incredibly suspect in an offensive league.
12. West Virginia ( 5)
West Virginia is my inverse Cincinnati because I have them as the Big 12’s most overrated team, based on preseason poll results.
Coach Neal Brown did a tremendous job last season, taking the Mountaineers to a tie for fourth place in 2023, but this year’s team has the same problem going into the season — it’s just not that interesting.
Oh, and the Mountaineers play K-State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona this year.
Brown may make me eat my words again, but until then, I’m sleeping on West Virginia.
13. Baylor ( 1)
I voted for Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen, formerly of Mississippi State, as the Preseason Newcomer of the Year. Even with him on the team, the Bears are the definition of mid.
14. Arizona State ( 2)
Arizona State was picked to finish dead last in the preseason poll.
I have no good reason to have them two spots higher, other than the fact I think the next two teams will somehow be worse.
15. BYU ( 2)
BYU’s schedule is rough. It plays every team in the consensus top five.
Its season, oddly enough, will come down to the final two weeks. It plays at Arizona State on the road and hosts Houston. It will likely split those games and find a way to win one Big 12 game.
16. Houston ( 1)
Houston might not win a game in 2024.
Marcus Trevino writes for the Stillwater News Press.
