Where are they now: 2020 Red Sox top prospects edition (2024)

In recent days, a handful of blogs and X accounts have attempted this prompt: look back five years at organizational top prospect lists from 2019 and perform a kind of “Where Are They Now?” analysis. It’s a bit of memory lane, and a bit of what might have been with — ideally — a handful of success stories sprinkled throughout.

Every Brewers 2019 top 30 prospect and where they are now

1. Keston Hiura

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The Red Sox have undergone such transformation that the exercise works at the four-year mark. It’s not the usual milestone, but four years ago was the start of the Chaim Bloom era, when the team’s system was filled mostly with inherited prospects. And it turns out, we’re already pretty close to a final analysis of that group.

On Feb. 26, 2020 — just two weeks after the Mookie Betts trade — Keith Law released his annual Top 20 Red Sox Prospects list. It included 18 names acquired under the previous president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, and two acquired by Bloom. Four years later, we can pretty easily lump them into four distinct groups, plus a fifth group that is surprisingly relevant and necessary.

Current Red Sox: Triston Casas (ranked No. 2), Jarren Duran (5), Bobby Dalbec (7), Tanner Houck (10), Connor Wong (19), Brayan Bello (20)

Injured depth: Bryan Mata (9), Chris Murphy (12)

Red Sox minor leaguers: Noah Song (3), Matthew Lugo (11), A.J. Politi (15), Ryan Zeferjahn (16), Nick Decker (17), Chih-Jung Liu (18)

Released/waived/traded/etc.: Jeter Downs (1), Jay Groome (4), Thaddeus Ward (6), Gilberto Jimenez (8), C.J. Chatham (13), Cam Cannon (14)

Notably unranked: Kutter Crawford, Ceddanne Rafaela, Brandon Walter, Wikelman Gonzalez, Aldo Ramirez, Ryan Fernandez

This was seen as one of the worst farm systems in baseball. Law ranked the Red Sox sixth-worst in the game, and that sentiment was fairly universal. Among the biggest concerns were a lack of pitching (Bello and Crawford had yet to fully emerge; Houck still faced massive questions about his ability to start in the big leagues) and the lack of upper-level talent (which more or less proved a legitimate concern). The group’s No. 1 prospect, Downs, proved an overwhelming bust, Jimenez also fell well short of expectations, and Song’s unusual path through a military commitment has played out as a near worst-case scenario on the baseball side (delayed arrival followed by injury).

But ultimately, that 2020 farm system has generated four lineup regulars (Casas, Duran, Wong, Rafaela) and three-fifths of the current Red Sox rotation (Bello, Houck, Crawford). It’s also provided some depth (Dalbec, Murphy, Walter), one key trade piece (Ramirez for Kyle Schwarber in 2021), and four players who other teams felt were worth at least a look in the Rule 5 draft (Song, Politi, Ward, Fernandez).

Some of that success is surely a feather in the cap of the Red Sox player development program which, even before Craig Breslow was hired as the new chief baseball officer, worked to improve its pitching program. Those efforts have generated some positive results at the big-league level. Also, some of that higher-risk, lower-level talent from 2020 has progressed nicely (Casas has more or less met lefty expectations, while Rafaela and Wong have exceeded them). Our latest Red Sox top 20 includes no holdovers from the 2020 list (Mata was No. 20 until the team traded for David Sandlin), though it does include three players who had started pro ball in 2020 but went unranked at the time (Rafaela, Walter, Gonzalez). The opportunity to draft higher in recent years has brought in a lot of high-upside talent, and the system now has four of Law’s top 60 prospects — an improvement from zero in 2020.

So, four years later, where are the top 20 Red Sox prospects of 2020? Here’s the breakdown.

1. Jeter Downs, SS

Now: Yankees Triple-A roster

The top prospect acquired in the Mookie Betts trade, Downs was a bat-first middle infielder who seemed to have both a high floor and a high ceiling, but his bat just never held up against upper-level pitching and Downs was designated for assignment in 2022.

2. Triston Casas, 1B

Now: Red Sox first baseman (on the IL)

Comparing his two-strike approach to that of Juan Soto, Law had Casas in his top 100 prospects (at No. 90) in 2020 and noted that his combination of power and patience profiled as “at least an above-average regular at first base.”

3. Noah Song, RHP

Now: Recovering from Tommy John surgery

Song missed four years due to commitments with the Navy and returned to an awkward Rule 5 situation last season. He was finally on track to have a normal year but had Tommy John surgery this spring. He turns 27 in May.

4. Jay Groome, LHP

Now: Padres Triple-A rotation

Drafted 12th overall in 2016, Groome had battled health issues throughout his professional career and was traded to the Padres at the 2021 deadline. He had an 8.55 ERA in Triple A last year.

5. Jarren Duran, CF

Now: Red Sox leadoff hitter

One of the system’s emerging prospects in 2020, Duran has gone through ups and downs in the majors but seemed to find his stride last year to become a key piece of the current lineup.

6. Thaddeus Ward, RHP

Now: Nationals Triple-A rotation

Another breakout prospect in 2020, Ward was the top pick in the 2022 Rule 5 draft and had a 6.37 ERA out of the Nationals’ bullpen last season. He’s now in their Triple-A rotation.

7. Bobby Dalbec, 3B

Now: Red Sox bench player

Dalbec got to the big leagues late in 2020 and had a 149 OPS+, which he followed with 25 homers in 2021, but swing-and-miss tendencies have kept him from maintaining a steady role.

8. Gilberto Jimenez, CF

Now: Released at the end of spring training

Elite speed, great contact skills and legitimate center-field defense gave Jimenez an everyday ceiling, but anticipated offensive strides never came and he was ultimately released this spring having never played above Class-A ball.

9. Bryan Mata, RHP

Now: On the IL with a strained hamstring

High-upside pitcher who’s battled injuries and got hurt again this spring. He’s out of options but has yet to make his big-league debut. If he gets healthy, he’ll have to get a chance or be DFA’d.

10. Tanner Houck, RHP

Now: Red Sox rotation

Constantly fighting the perception that he belongs in the bullpen, Houck has stuck as a big-league starter since last season and is off to a tremendous start this year. He’ll be arbitration-eligible this offseason.

11. Matthew Lugo, 3B

Now: Red Sox Double-A outfielder

From shortstop to third base to left field, second-rounder Lugo has moved down the defensive spectrum while struggling offensively. He’s off to a good start this year.

12. Chris Murphy, LHP

Now: Recovering from Tommy John surgery

If not for surgery, Murphy probably would have been shuttling back and forth from Triple A as a left-handed spot starter and long reliever. He pitched well in that role last year after some mid-season adjustments.

13. C.J. Chatham, SS

Now: Out of pro ball

The Red Sox had Chatham on their 40-man but never called him up. He was traded to the Phillies in 2021 and released by the Diamondbacks after playing three Triple-A games in 2022. He never played in the majors.

14. Cam Cannon, 2B/SS

Now: Playing independent ball

Without a first-round pick in 2019, Cannon was the top Red Sox selection but never hit much in the upper levels. The Phillies took him in the minor-league portion of the 2022 Rule 5 draft. He last played indy ball in 2023.

15. A.J. Politi, RHP

Now: Red Sox Triple-A bullpen

Politi was a Rule 5 pick last year (the Orioles sent him back) and was in big-league camp this spring. No longer a top prospect, he still has a chance of reaching the majors.

16. Ryan Zeferjahn, RHP

Now: Red Sox Double-A bullpen

Moved from the rotation to the bullpen in 2022, Zeferjahn has maintained some prospect intrigue but is currently back in Double A, a level he first reached two years ago.

17. Nick Decker, RF

Now: Red Sox Double-A bench

A second-round pick in 2018, Decker had hit for enough power in the lowest levels to suggest legitimate offensive upside, but he’s had injury problems and hasn’t hit a ton the past two seasons.

18. Chih-Jung Liu, RHP

Now: Red Sox Double-A injured list

In 2020, Liu was a new addition having signed out of Taiwan in October 2019. He had a 5.35 ERA out of the Double-A Portland rotation last season and no longer ranks in SoxProspects.com’s top 60.

19. Connor Wong, C/INF

Now: Red Sox primary catcher

The first line of Law’s 2020 scouting report referred to Wong as a “utility man with a different profile.” He had been a part-time infielder in the Dodgers’ system, but the Red Sox have kept him behind the plate, and he became their primary big-league catcher last year.

20. Brayan Bello, RHP

Now: Red Sox Opening Day starter

Surprising though it may be, this ranking wasn’t unusual in 2020. Baseball America ranked Bello 16th in the system and MLB Pipeline had him 18th. He had yet to add his sinker and was coming off a 5.43 ERA in A-ball. This spring, Bello signed a six-year extension. He’s pitched well this season but went on the IL Wednesday.

(Top photo of Jeter Downs in 2022: Brian Fluharty / USA Today)