Today's breakdown of MLB sides shows a lean toward some pitchers whose numbers don't exactly match their performance thus far in 2024, specifically one game where the under looks really good.
Play 1: New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres – Mets Moneyline (-104) FanDuel
It's been a little bit of a wacky season for Mets starter Sean Manaea. The lefty has predictable splits across his career, having more success against lefty batters (career 3.54 xFIP) than righty batters (4.22).
This season, however -- and granted, it's a small sample size alert, as Manaea has only faced 44 lefty hitters -- the numbers are more or less reversed (3.36 xFIP compared to 4.46).
But also interesting: Despite the better xFIP, Manaea has been BABIP'ed to death by lefties, to the tune of .385.
In short: Not much about Manaea's 2024 performance makes a whole lot of sense.
Enter his Friday night home matchup against the Padres -- who are coming to the East Coast for the first time all season -- and Manaea looks to be facing a lineup that plays to his strengths.
Six righties are expected to start for the Padres, and out of the entire projected lineup, there's not one batter that has an ISO over .194 over the last two seasons. Add in Manaea's propensity to give up fly balls -- his ground ball percentage sits at 33.3% on the season -- and a Padres lineup that has a dearth of ground ball hitters (as has been well-documented, opposites attract in this realm) and Manaea seems set up for some success.
On the other side of the ball, the Mets are facing righty Matt Waldron, who has shown typical splits this season. A few runs should be all the Mets need to take down the Padres.
Play 2: Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers -- Under 7.5 Runs (-110) FanDuel
Tarik Skubal is pitching for the Tigers, so that's about all the #analysis one needs on the Tigers side.
But here's more: He's given up more than two earned runs only twice this year, already beat the Astros, keeps the ball on the ground, and has a barrel percentage of 5.2% on the season. (To compare, that's the same barrel rate of Marlins IF/OF Nick Gordon).
Of course, baseball is baseball and anything can happen, but Skubal is the AL Cy Young favorite (+125 at DraftKings) and has been near lights-out this season.
On the other side of the ledger is Hunter Brown, who has some of the most mixed-up pitching stats in recent memory. To wit: Batters have a .192 ISO and .358 wOBA against him. For comparison's sake, Corey Seager has a .361 wOBA this year, and Mookie Betts has a .191 ISO. So yeah: Batters turn into a combo of Seager and Betts against Brown. And those numbers are strikingly similar to last year's numbers.
But ... his barrel percentage is the same as Skubal's. His ground ball rate is north of 50%. His hard hit rate is a solid 38.7%.
But somehow his BABIP is at .327. To be clear: Brown is keeping the ball on the ground, not getting hit hard, and yet batters are skipping around the bases.
Something has to give, and it might just be the Tigers lineup, which has a .301 wOBA against righties this year, good for 19th in the league.
Put simply, Brown's numbers don't add up, and the Tigers lineup isn't scary. Add in Skubal's mastery thus far this season, and under 7.5 runs looks like the right side.
Play 3: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago White Sox -- Over 9 Runs (-110) Caesars
This over/under should be higher, period, full stop.
Let's start on the Diamondbacks' side, as they're going up against Chris Flexen, who is getting smacked around by lefties to the tune of a .295 ISO so far this year. That number would be sandwiched in between Kyle Tucker and Marcell Ozuna for the third-best ISO on the season.
His wOBA against lefties ain't much better at .352, which is "just" Kyle Schwarber territory.
Additionally, nearly half the balls hit by lefties against Flexen are classified as "hard" hits, and his barrel percentage sits at 11.4%.
Despite all this, his BABIP against lefties is a miniscule .235.
Something is going to give, and it might happen with the first three batters in the lineup, with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Joc Pederson all set to give Flexen fits. And it doesn't get easier after that with Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel, a pair of power-hitting righties.
Add in Flexen's inability to strike batters out (18.2% strikeout rate on the year) and the Diamondbacks' ability to put the ball in play (a 20.8 strikeout rate, good for eighth in the majors) and there is a recipe for the D-Backs to score early and often.
On the other side of the game is a pitcher who might be worse than Flexen in Ryne Nelson. He strikes out even fewer batters (14.9%) and is giving up a .208 ISO and .388 wOBA.
Now granted, the White Sox are abysmal on offense by nearly every measure, but if they can put just a few runs on the board, they should be able to help get this over the line.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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